March 2025
Green Coffee Prices at Record Highs
This is our second report since December on the soaring prices of this year’s new crop coffees.
Commodity-grade coffee prices have reached historic highs, currently hovering around double what they were a year ago. This surge has affected prices across all coffee qualities. The primary drivers are the rapid growth in global coffee consumption—led by China—and climate change.
According to the USDA, world coffee consumption has outpaced production since 2021. As we enter 2025, this trend appears to be continuing, further depleting already low global inventory stocks.
Weather Challenges in Key Coffee-Producing Countries
Extreme weather has severely impacted major coffee producers. Brazil, which accounts for nearly 40% of global production, and Vietnam, responsible for 16%, have experienced prolonged droughts and higher-than-normal temperatures. This has weakened coffee trees and reduced yields.
Brazil’s current rainy season (October–March/April) stalled in mid-February, and if dry conditions persist through March, the upcoming May–July harvest could suffer even further. As a result, most coffee traders anticipate prices will remain at these elevated levels throughout 2025 and into the first half of 2026. Jenny and I are closely monitoring Brazil’s weather forecasts and the coffee futures market.
Impact on the Coffee Industry
Many coffee companies are struggling due to the sharp price increase. Credit conditions are tightening, and rising interest rates are adding financial strain. Importers, roasters, and farmers are all feeling the pressure. Farmers are facing soaring costs for labor and agricultural inputs—expenses they must cover long before seeing any income from their sales.
The Central American harvests are now arriving in the U.S. We’ve secured what we need without compromising quality. These coffees—along with Brazilian varieties—are our most popular due to their consistency and availability at relatively lower prices. However, high market prices are tempting some farmers to forgo quality investments, as local buyers offer immediate cash without even sampling the beans.
Our Commitment to Quality
We have already secured all the coffee we need for the Central American harvest year, which runs from June 2025 to June 2026, ensuring consistency and excellence in every cup. As costs rise, we must adjust our prices, but we are committed to absorbing much of the impact by significantly reducing our margins.
Unlike some specialty roasters in the market, we refuse to compromise on quality—whether in our single-farm offerings, regional selections, or the carefully curated components of our two blends. At George Howell Coffee, our passion lies in showcasing the naturally sweet, intrinsic flavors of high-quality black coffee. Many of our customers are surprised by the natural sweetness in every sip, even without additives. That experience is at the core of what we do.
Quality isn’t just a standard—it’s our promise. It’s what makes every cup a delight.